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1. Business confidence is cautious, shaping HR budgets
Preliminary responses suggest that business confidence is directly impacting HR budgets. As affordability is emerging anecdotally as a central concern of businesses, this caution is set against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures and persistent cost of living challenges.
While overall HR spending is expected to be cautious, investment is being directed toward strategic and data-driven priorities. Pay benchmarking, engagement surveys and reward design will dominate the agenda for many in 2025.
HR budget-setting activity tends to peak in October, April and September, aligning with fiscal and academic cycles. While most organisations expect their HR budgets to remain flat, many are anticipating modest increases in training and development and project or development work. Smaller increases are also expected in reward and HR headcount. Decreases, where they occur, are expected to be modest, with very few organisations predicting significant cuts.
In terms of priorities, pay benchmarking and employee opinion surveys are the most widespread areas of focus. Other common areas include benefits benchmarking, pay review processes and reward strategy development. Projects such as bonus design, executive benchmarking and long-term incentives are lower priorities, while equal pay studies remain an emerging concern.
2. Recruitment and retention pressures intensify
Both recruitment and retention remain key areas of concern. Pay compression is becoming more common, with organisations increasingly paying new hires more than existing employees and few expect relief from these trends in the short term.
The war for talent remains relentless. Another trend that HR professionals are having to tackle is a rise of ‘polygamous’ workers. Approximately half of organisations are offering higher salaries to new recruits, often up to 10 per cent more than their existing staff. This has fuelled concerns about internal pay equity. Nearly a quarter of organisations expect turnover to increase this year, with voluntary turnover already averaging 11.6 per cent.
Bonuses remain a key part of the total reward strategy. 70 per cent of organisations operate a bonus scheme, most paid annually, and employers are also exploring other levers, including workplace culture and long-term development, to keep people engaged.
Furthermore, the need to balance cost with fairness is forcing employers to reassess out-of-cycle pay decisions. The average out-of-cycle increase is expected to drop, with a growing number of employers planning to entirely avoid using out-of-cycle increases.