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Date: 8 October 2026
Pay rises look likely to stay around 3 per cent for most employees, while recruitment and retention remain a challenge for some organisations. At the same time, we’re seeing a more targeted approach to pay, with employers focusing increases where they are likely to have the most impact.
There are some encouraging signs in the wider business picture. 40 per cent of respondents expect their order book to increase and 41 per cent expect revenue to rise. But only 36 per cent expect profitability to improve. That gap is worth noting.
Business may be picking up, but margins are still under pressure. This is reflected in reward decisions. Affordability is the biggest influence on pay, with 55 per cent saying it has a very significant impact. Inflation and the cost of living continue to matter too. So, while things may be looking a little brighter, employers are still having to make every pound count.
For employees not affected by the National Living Wage, the median 2026 pay increase is 3.0 per cent. In fact, two-thirds of respondents report their 2026 pay review budget to be 3 per cent or less. The picture changes at the lower end of the pay scale.
For employees affected by the National Living Wage, the median increase is reported as 3.8 per cent, reflecting the additional pressure on employers with larger numbers of employees close to the minimum wage.
Looking ahead to 2027, there is not much evidence yet of a major shift. Around two thirds of respondents expect their pay review budget for employees not affected by the National Living Wage to be 3 per cent or less. For now, 3 per cent looks like the number to watch.
There is no single approach to pay reviews. The most common approach, used by 41 per cent of respondents, is to use a combination of across-the-board and individual increases.
External market influences are a particularly important factor, with 68 per cent citing external relativities as impacting on pay decisions. Internal relativities also matter, cited by 52 per cent. We’re also seeing employers target pay at particular groups. High performers are the most common focus, followed by scarce skills and critical roles.
In other words, employers are not just asking, “What pay increase can we afford?” They are increasingly asking, “Where will that money make the biggest difference?”
Pay transparency is also moving up the agenda. Three quarters of respondents are utilising pay structures or scales, while 64 per cent are using formal job grading. Gender pay gap reporting is already well established, with 69 per cent conducting and publishing reports.
But there is still a difference between putting the structures in place and being completely open about pay. Only 36 per cent are publicly publishing salary ranges for roles. It will be interesting to see whether that changes as expectations around pay transparency continue to grow.
The recruitment market is certainly less pressured than it was a few years ago. 38 per cent of organisations expect difficulties recruiting over the next six months, compared with 79 per cent in Autumn 2022.
Retention pressures have followed a similar pattern. 33 per cent expect difficulties retaining people, down from 70 per cent in Autumn 2022. That is a significant improvement, but it doesn't mean recruitment is easy.
Three quarters of respondents experience labour shortages at least sometimes, while 80 per cent report a lack of suitable candidates or skills. Almost half have also had to offer new recruits salaries that create differences with existing employees.
Employers are responding in a number of ways. Technology-led recruitment is the most common approach (69 per cent), followed by competitive benefits (66 per cent) and flexible, remote or hybrid working (60 per cent). Internal recruitment, employee referrals and making more of the wider employee proposition are also popular.
Pay is important, but it is clearly not the only tool employers are using to retain people. Analysing exit interview feedback is the most commonly adopted approach, alongside communicating the wider reward package, flexible working, reviewing benefits, improving employee engagement and offering clearer career paths.
With pay budgets still relatively tight, employers are having to think more broadly about what makes people stay. Flexibility, development, management and the overall employee experience all have a part to play.
The early Autumn 2026 results point to a reward market that is more stable, but also more selective. For many employees, the headline pay increase is likely to be around 3 per cent. But that doesn't tell the whole story.
Higher increases may still be needed for employees affected by the National Living Wage, scarce skills, key roles or people employers are particularly keen to retain.
For reward teams, the challenge is therefore a familiar one: balancing what the organisation can afford with what it needs to do to attract, retain and motivate the people it needs. And with pay budgets constrained, being clear about how decisions are made remains important.
The UK Reward Management Survey has tracked reward and employment trends for more than a decade. If you haven't yet taken part, we'd encourage you to share your experience. The more organisations that contribute, the more useful the results become for everyone working in reward, HR and people management. Complete the UK Reward Management Survey and help us build the full picture of reward in the UK. All participants will receive a free copy of the comprehensive trends report in return for taking part.
Managing Director
Date: 8 October 2026
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